At some point, South Africa faced possible expulsion from AGOA. This paper answers the question: how would the SA economy have been impacted had such expulsion been realised? An erosion of preferential market access, South Africa’s access to the USA market under AGOA, is expected to lead to losses in the South Africa economy, albeit minimal. This study used, as a policy shock, the introduction by USA of applied tariffs on selected imported agricultural products (beverages and tobacco; sugar; and vegetables, fruits and nuts) from South Africa. The methodology used to quantify the effects of the stated policy change is the standard GTAP model with database from GTAP database version 7. Read more. See also PowerPoint Presentation.