Introduction

China imports more plums and sloes than any other country in the world, with its imports rising from R59.4 million in 2005 to at least R5.8 billion in 2024. Figure 6 shows the value of China’s imports of sloes and plums in Rand from 2005 to 2024. Global imports of plums and sloes were valued at R26.1 billion in 2024, according to trade map data, with China being the largest importer with a share of 22%, or R5.8 billion. These markets were responsible for 36% of global imports in 2024, or R9.4 billion, when combined with Hong Kong, whose imports were R3.5 billion in 2024, or 14% of global imports (Trade map, 2025).

Chinese market analysis

Like other stone fruits, South Africa’s plum and sloe business is facing comparable concerns such as logistical issues and climate change, amongst others. Another major problem facing plums and sloes is declining profitability, which has put a great deal of strain on South African farmers (Hortgro 2021). The future of the sector is uncertain because of these circumstances, which have caused financial losses for many farmers. Notwithstanding the difficulties, South Africa’s export volumes of plums have recovered in the 2024–2025 season, with a considerable rise in plum shipments. The Chinese market for sloes and plums is examined in this article. The article specifically examines the Chinese market considering South Africa’s agreement to gain access to it.

Figure 1: China’s plums and sloes imports from 2005 to 2024 in value (Rand)

Source: Trade map, 2025

The main months for China to import plums and sloes are January through May. According to trade map data, China imported an average of R854.1 million worth of plums and sloes every month between January and May of 2025. After May, plum and sloe imports start to decline to negligible levels. From 2016 to 2024, the top suppliers of plums and sloes to China are shown in Figure 7 by percentage share in Rands. Figure 7 below makes it abundantly evident that Chile is the primary provider of plums and sloes to the Chinese market; of China’s R5.8 billion in 2024 imports, Chile provided 93% of them, or R5.4 billion. Chile accounted for 65% of China’s imports of plums and sloes throughout the investigated period in 2016, and this percentage rose noticeably over time to 93% in 2024. Australia witnessed a slight increase from 0% in 2016 to 5% in 2024, while the United States saw a sharp decline from 31% in 2016 to 2% in 2024. High tariffs from the 2018 trade war, fierce competition from countries like Chile, and interruptions in international supply chains could all be contributing factors to this reduction. The countries or areas shown in the figure below are South Africa’s rivals for the Chinese plum and sloe market.

Figure 2: China’s plums and sloes

Source: Trade map, 2025

In Figure 8, the value of South Africa’s plum and sloe exports by month is displayed. In contrast to peaches and nectarines, South Africa’s plums and sloes are ready for the market several weeks before Chinese imports of plums and sloes hit the shelves. More significantly, this is before Chile’s and Australia’s plums and sloes start to enter the Chinese market, but Spain and the USA export to China in November and December each year the same time as South Africa plums and sloes are being exported. The world’s supply of South Africa’s plums and sloes typically peaks in December and then starts to decline in January. However, China does import nearly all year long, but small amounts outside the January-May period, while South Africa exports negligible amounts of sloes and plums to the rest of the world throughout the year after March. South African farmers of these fruits might fetch premium prices considering supply and demand factors.

Figure 3: South Africa’s plums and sloes exports from 2005 to 2024 in value (Rand) by months

Source: Trade map, 2025

Conclusion

The Chinese market presents a great potential for South African farmers and various agribusinesses. Access to the biggest market in the world for plums and sloes will undoubtedly help many farmers who grow these fruits and, of course, aid in product diversification, which the South African government is actively promoting following the trade shock caused by the 30% tariff that the US government placed on South African products. Apart from the Chinese markets, diversification to other export markets should be broadened and deepened.